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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method 1st Edition PDF – eBook

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  • Authors: by Martha Whitesmith (Author)
  • File Size: 2 MB
  • Format: PDF
  • Paperback: 304 pages
  • Publisher: Edinburgh University Press; 1st edition (September 15, 2020)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1474466346
  • ISBN-13: 978-1474466349

Download Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method 1st Edition PDF – eBook

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Description

  • Authors: by Martha Whitesmith (Author)
  • File Size: 2 MB
  • Format: PDF
  • Paperback: 304 pages
  • Publisher: Edinburgh University Press; 1st edition (September 15, 2020)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1474466346
  • ISBN-13: 978-1474466349

Download Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method 1st Edition PDF – eBook

Contents
List of Figures and Tables vii
Acknowledgments viii
Introduction 1
Part 1 Intelligence, Bias, and Belief Acquisition:
A Theoretical Perspective
1. Intelligence and Belief Acquisition 21
A Taxonomy of Intelligence 24
Intelligence as an Epistemological Act 44
How Can Knowledge Be Acquired? 45
Epistemological Implications for Intelligence 53
2. The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic
Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias 61
The ACH Method 62
The Ability of ACH to Reduce Epistemic Complexity 66
Intelligence, Bias, and Belief Acquisition:
A Theoretical Perspective 96
Part 2 Intelligence, Bias, and Belief Acquisition:
An Empirical Perspective
3. The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position
Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence
Analysis Scenario 107
Procedure 107
Results 110
Discussion and Conclusions 119

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
vi
4. Predicting Serial Position Effects 145
Experimental Conditions 147
Results and Discussion 159
An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects
Prediction Models 164
The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial
Position Effects 169
5. Predicting Confirmation Bias 184
Additional Experimental Conditions 187
Results and Discussion 189
An Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias
Prediction Models 192
The Impact of Analytical Conditions on
Confirmation Bias 196
Intelligence, Bias, and Belief Acquisition:
An Empirical Perspective 198
6. Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in
Intelligence Analysis 207
Recommendations for Future Research and
Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis 221
Appendix 229
Bibliography 245
Index 289

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